‘90% of bets are for Theresa May to win the vote’, says betting expert

‘90% of bets are for Theresa May to win the vote’, says betting expert

Prime Minister Theresa May outside of Downing Street

Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Katie Baylis, Betfair’s Political Betting expert has said that 90% of the bets on the vote are for Theresa May to win Wednesday’s vote.

The Prime Minister is set to face a vote by her Conservative MPs on Wednesday night after it was triggered by 48 letters of no confidence against her.

Ms Baylis told talkRADIO’s Matthew Wright: “I have not stopped since I woke up this morning looking at these odds. What I can tell you is it is very much one way traffic on the market as to whether Theresa May will survive tonight.

“We opened up the market this morning when we got confirmation that this would happen tonight and we have seen £500,000 bet so far today.

“On this result, 90% of those bets have been for her to continue and win the vote tonight. She is massively odds-on. 1/8 that she will continue.”

 

'A lot of upset' 

Chairman of the 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady speaking to media outside the Houses of Parliament

Ms Baylis added that it was not certain because “we have seen a lot of upset in politics in the last two years”.

“It is looking to punters that she will definitely survive but we have seen a lot of upset in politics in the last two years so I would not completely give that 100%,” she said.

“At the moment pundits definitely think she is going to win this one.”

She added: “Who would want to step in at this time? It must be the worst time for this.”

Former foreign secretary Boris Johnson and ex-Brexit secretary Dominic Raab are joint favourites to become the next permanent Tory leader on odds of 4/1 each, according to Ladbrookes.

Home Secretary Sajid Javid is close behind on 6/1, says the bookmakers.