Britain's most pro-Brexit areas will be hit hardest by leaving, new report suggests

Brexit forecasts show economies of areas which voted Leave will be hit hardest

EU leaders like Jean-Claude Juncker maintain that Brexit will damage Britain in the long term

Thursday, February 8, 2018

The areas of Britain which voted most resoundingly for Brexit will be the hardest hit when we leave, according to new Government estimates.

The forecasts map out the various possible outcomes of the Brexit talks, and their implications on economic growth over the next 15 years. The analysis covers the potential impact of Britain securing a trade deal with the EU, staying in the single market and leaving without a deal.

According to the report, the best-case scenario is a single market deal, but this would still stall economic growth by 2 percent. A reversion to WTO tariffs, in contrast, would bring an 8 percent drag.

However the potential implications vary markedly by region.

In the West Midlands, where around 60% of people voted to leave in 2016, growth would be up to 13 percent lower over the 15-year period. In the North East of England, which returned a 58% majority in favour of Brexit, the damage could be 16 percent.

However London, which voted to stay within the EU, is expected to be least affected by Brexit, with growth unlikely to slow by more than 3.5%. 

Scotland's biggest drop in growth would be 9%, according to the report, whilst Wales' would be 9.5%.

The Government has said the analysis doesn't "consider the outcome we are seeking in the negotiations," and insists that the forecasts are only preliminary.

Brexiteers have also poured scorn on the figures, with Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg claiming officials were "fiddling the figures" in order to make all outcomes of Brexit appear poor

The reports were showed to MPs after some of the information was leaked to Buzzfeed, sparking calls for the complete information to be formally released.