Poll: Conservatives on course for 68-seat majority win

The poll used data from 100,000 panellists

Thursday, November 28, 2019

Boris Johnson is on course to win the general election with a 68-seat majority according to a constituency-by-constituency estimate by YouGov.

The poll suggested that if the election was held today, the Conservative Party would win 359 seats and take 43 per cent of the vote in its best performance since 1987.

It would secure the win by triumphing in Labour heartlands, with the opposition predicted to lose 51 seats and suffer a nine percentage point decrease in its share of the vote.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are currently on course to see their number of MPs increase by just one from 12 to 13, picking up four new seats while losing out in three they currently hold.

YouGov questioned around 100,000 panellists on their voting intentions over the last seven days and used a recently-developed technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP).

It is the same method used by the data firm when they accurately predicted the results of 93 per cent of constituencies in the 2017 general election.

However, the figures are in contrast to a separate poll carried out by Savanta ComRes, which has the Conservatives on 41 per cent of the vote share and Labour on 34 per cent – resulting in a narrower Conservative majority of 10.

The projections came as the Prime Minister’s top aide Dominic Cummings warned the election race was “much tighter” than the opinion polls suggested.

Writing in his blog, Mr Cummings said leave supporters risked handing victory to Labour if they voted for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in key marginal seats that the Conservatives need in order to gain an overall majority.

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